US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor emphasizes the importance of the India-US relationship after meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, focusing on cooperation in defence, trade, and critical minerals.
Indian officials will focus on expanding the country's footprint in oil-rich Siberia when they meet their Russian counterparts at the four-day 7th Eastern Economic Forum beginning Monday in Vladivostok. The two sides will discuss the possibility of joint oil exploration in the area and cooperation in running offshore oil and gas fields Western companies are in the process of exiting, officials said in New Delhi. Pavan Kapoor, India's ambassador to Russia, will lead the official-level talks at the summit scheduled September 5-8.
Chinese envoy Xu Feihong stated that China opposes the US imposing tariffs on India, amidst a thaw in Sino-India relations and concerns over global trade disruptions.
A swift recovery in oil demand in India is not only helping the stability of the global market, it is giving huge fiscal headroom to the government in terms of additional excise duty.
President Trump addresses questions about US imports from Russia and India's stance on purchasing Russian oil, hinting at potential tariffs.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
After remaining in the positive zone for three months, India's exports contracted 1.2 per cent to $33.98 billion in July, while the trade deficit widened to $23.5 billion.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
India's exports rose marginally by 1.62 per cent to $33.92 billion, while trade deficit more than doubled to $27.98 billion in August due to increased crude oil imports, commerce ministry data said on Wednesday. The revised data showed that imports rose by 37.28 per cent to $61.9 billion in August this year. The preliminary data released by the ministry on September 3 had shown a 1.15 per cent decline in exports to $33 billion in August.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's largest oil firm, has renewed a deal to buy up to 2 million tonnes of crude oil in 2022 from Russia's Rosneft, the Russian oil producer said. IOC had in February 2020 signed a deal with Rosneft Oil Company to import up to 2 million tonnes of oil via the port of Novorossiysk. In 2021, the deal envisaged supply of up to 1.7 million tonnes of crude oil but IOC bought just on parcel or shipload as the cost of transporting the oil made it uneconomical, when compared to alternatives. For 2022, the deal is for the supply of up to 2 million tonnes of oil from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
State-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC) is looking at selling oil bonds worth Rs 1,000-1,500 crore (Rs 10-15 billion) this month in the open market even as its crude oil import bill has declined by about 67 per cent on falling global rates.
'I have no problems with the finance ministry or with state governments treating petrol pump prices as the last resort for meeting their ambitious spending targets with very limited revenue resources.' 'But let's do away with this smokescreen of free pricing of petrol and diesel and go back to administered pricing regime,' says Dr Sudhir Bisht.
India imported 13.2 million tonnes of crude oil from Nigeira in 2009-10.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
India will need to travel back in time and seek inspiration from football greats Tulsidas Balaram and Chuni Goswami to deftly dribble around and sidestep the West-imposed price cap on exports of Russian seaborne crude oil. India depends on imported oil to meet 86 per cent of its needs, of which nearly a quarter now comes from Russia. The copious flows are roughly 10 per cent cheaper than competing suppliers helping India save billions of dollars in fuel costs.
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
The retail prices of petroleum products have moved broadly in line with, or somewhat more than, the rupee cost of oil imports.
Oil prices jumped nearly $3 a barrel and gold and safe-haven bonds rallied on Friday after the killing of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike by the US in Baghdad.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
India has taken up the issue of high oil prices with producer nations and OPEC, demanding affordable rates, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Petrol is retailing above Rs 100 a litre in more than a dozen states.
The unexpected missile attack on a second India-bound ship carrying Russian crude, just three weeks after the first, has complicated matters for domestic refiners. India now counts the Vladimir Putin-led nation as its biggest oil supplier, according to Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler, and these attacks come on top of US sanctions since December, where vessels that bring crude to India are facing heightened scrutiny. Panama-registered Pollux, which loaded crude at the Sheshkaris oil terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk on January 24, was scheduled to deliver the medium, sour Urals grade to Paradip port on February 28.
Crude oil shipments from the US to India rose to the highest levels in November since the conflict began in Ukraine in late February, sparking hopes of a resurgence in oil flows from the US to the subcontinent, reveals shipping data. Shipments from the US have surged as Western nations prepare to impose additional sanctions on Russian crude flows. The US shipped around 450,000 barrels per day of crude last month to India, twice that of shipments in October, according to data from London-based commodity intelligence provider Vortexa.
Privatisation of old oil fields to raise output and reduce India's import dependence was advised by the Economic Survey.
After prospects of a higher subsidy outgo on food and fertilisers, the government is faced with the spectre of a higher petroleum subsidy. Rising crude oil prices and its inability to increase fuel prices is all set to spoil the government's subsidy calculations. The country meets 80 per cent of its crude oil demand through imports.
'Don't look at Russia only as a place to earn quickly and then leave.' 'Try to build experience in serious companies, skills and certifications that will serve you anywhere in the world.'
'The primary market's rhythm mirrors investor confidence. While sentiment may appear cautious, it reflects maturity, not weakness.'
India's trade relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan are expected to come under strain due to Ankara and Baku backing Islamabad and condemning India's recent strikes on terror camps in Pakistan. Following their support to Pakistan, calls for boycotting Turkish goods and tourism have surfaced across the country, with online travel platforms such as EaseMyTrip and Ixigo issuing advisories against visiting these nations.
India's trade deficit with Russia continued to widen for the second consecutive year to $57 billion in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), with Moscow becoming New Delhi's largest source of crude oil imports. All eyes will now be on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia during July 8-9, where he is set to meet President Vladimir Putin. This will be Modi's first visit to the Kremlin since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began over two years ago.
Demand has fallen significantly in the US, which accounts for around 30 per cent of crude oil consumption and meets 60 per cent of its demand through imports.
The US Fed interest rate decision, inflation data and FIIs are the key factors that are expected to drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Global trends will also be tracked by investors for further cues, they added. "The Indian stock market's future trajectory will be influenced by a blend of global and domestic factors.
'The US values its relationship with India and under the strong leadership of President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister Modi, I am optimistic about the days ahead for both of our nations.'
A plea of the UK-based Vedanta group company to export its share of crude oil from Barmer oil field in Rajasthan was on Tuesday rejected by the Delhi high court on the ground that domestic crude cannot be exported till India attained "self sufficiency".
Putin further described the Ukraine conflict as a mere "pretext" by Western powers to take these broader punitive measures against countries maintaining strong economic ties with Russia.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
"We have been importing 3 million barrels of crude oil per month from Iran. There is no change in that status... there has been no disruption in supplies... We continue to import same volumes (this month)," Essar Oil Managing Director and CEO Naresh Nayyar said.
